Climate refugees are people who must leave their homes and communities because of the effects of climate change and global warming.

Climate change is caused by natural events, such as volcanic eruptions, as well as human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests. Climate change has happened many times since Earth was formed billions of years ago.

Global warming is the most recent period of climate change. This term refers specifically to the increase in Earth’s average temperature as a result of rising levels of greenhouse gasses.

Greenhouse gasses trap heat in the atmosphere and are released when fossil fuels are burned. Fossil fuels, which include coal, oil, and natural gas, are used to generate electricity, power vehicles, heat homes and commercial buildings, and produce a wide variety of goods. In general, wealthy, industrialized countries create the most greenhouse gas emissions but feel the smallest effect of climate change, while low-income, developing countries produce the lowest emissions but are the most at risk. Countries with lower emissions tend to be in geographical regions that make them more vulnerable to climate change issues, such as deserts and low-lying islands. They also have fewer resources available to prepare for climate emergencies and fund reconstruction efforts. Dry areas, like the Horn of Africa, and low-lying countries, like the Maldives, are already feeling the strain of climate change while producing relatively few emissions.

Throughout the Out of Eden Walk, a slow journalism project that traces the footsteps of the first humans to migrate out of Africa, National Geographic Explorer Paul Salopek has documented the ongoing struggles of people impacted by climate change around the world. For example, Salopek encountered pastoralist communities in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia who had been driven to desperation by rain patterns that have recently become unpredictable.

Rising temperatures also lead to droughts and desertification, defined as the transformation of arable land to desert. During periods of drought, the topsoil becomes so degraded that it can no longer support agriculture. People cannot grow enough food to feed themselves, often leading to widespread hunger. Dry-land areas affected by drought and desertification have the highest infant mortality rates and the lowest gross domestic product per capita.

Rising sea levels, drought, and desertification are significant contributors as to why people flee from their home countries. These climate refugees belong to a larger group of immigrants known as environmental migrants. Environmental migrants also include people who are fleeing sudden-onset natural disasters, such as forest fires and flooding. National Geographic Explorer and photographer Siddharth Behl documents migration due to climate change in India and South Asia as part of a humanitarian effort to create more awareness.

The United Nations reported that, in 2022, a higher percentage of refugees came from areas at risk because of climate change than ever before: from 61 percent in 2010 to 84 percent in 2022. A 2021 World Bank report estimated that, by 2050, the climate crisis could drive more than 200 million people to move. In 2020, the Institute for Economics and Peace put the number of people at risk of displacement by 2050 at over one billion, under the combined threat of climate change and civil unrest.

Out of the 33 billion tons of carbon dioxide produced globally, each U.S. household contributes an average of 8–10 metric tons. Consumers can take a variety of actions to reduce their carbon footprint, from extending the life of goods and reusing materials to buying secondhand clothing and eating less meat. But individual actions alone cannot stop climate change. Indeed, 70 percent of emissions are created by just 100 companies. These large corporations have battled against laws and regulations intended to curb emissions.

Sea-Level Rise

Rising temperatures associated with global warming cause glaciers and ice caps to melt, which in turn leads to higher sea levels. This increase in sea levels contributes to flooding and can put land completely underwater, making it uninhabitable. A 2021 report published by NatureCommunications estimated that 267 million people are currently living in areas affected by rising sea levels that could possibly put their land underwater.

Scientists predict that, if greenhouse gas emissions are not greatly reduced, the sea level for the United States could increase by as much as 2.2 meters (7.2 feet) by 2100. Rising sea levels already cause problems in low-lying coastal areas of the world. For instance, about a third of the population of Bangladesh lives by the coast, and two-thirds of the country is 4.5 meters (15 feet) or less above sea level. In 1995, Bangladesh’s Bhola Island was half-submerged by rising sea levels, leaving 500,000 people homeless. Scientists predict Bangladesh will lose 17 percent of its land by 2050 due to flooding caused by climate change. The loss of land could lead to as many as 20 million climate refugees from Bangladesh. National Geographic Explorer Asha Stuart is a documentary filmmaker and photographer who has documented the lives of Rohingya climate refugees in Bangladesh, many of which were forced by soil erosion to flee their coastal homes. And while the tropics of Asia contain much of the most at-risk land, all continents have highly vulnerable areas, including the Netherlands, Niger, and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Stuart has also documented the impacts of climate change and environmental racism on the historically Black communities of the American Deep South, where environmental issues hit people of color the hardest.

The U.S. state of Louisiana, for instance, loses 65 square kilometers (25 square miles) or more to the sea every year, particularly along the Mississippi Delta. When fresh water from the Mississippi river mixes with salt water from the sea, it can destroy the salinity balance in both ecosystems. This can result in negative effects, including killing the fish and other animals living in the water. Issues stemming from climate change—such as storms that cause the Mississippi River to flood the ocean with fresh water or rising sea levels that flood inland fresh water with salt from the sea—threaten both the ecosystem and the livelihood of people supported by the fishing industry.

Maldives

Maldives, an island nation in the Indian Ocean, is perhaps the country most threatened by sea-level rise. Maldives rises only 2.4 meters (8 feet) above sea level at its highest point. Sea-level rise will likely create climate refugees because of changes in both habitat and economy

The unique ecosystem of Maldives supports many of the economic sectors of the country. Fishing is the nation’s second-largest industry, and Maldivians eat more fish per day than any other population in the world. The supply of fish in Maldives is being threatened by rising ocean temperatures, which has occurred as a result of the oceans absorbing the excess heat caused by global warming. When water temperature rises, particular types of fish leave for cooler waters, and food sources, such as coral, die. There could be up to 75 percent fewer fish caught in Maldives by 2100. This would not only devastate the local economy, but also cause food scarcity and other problems.

The top industry in Maldives, tourism, is also under threat, because it depends on the ecology of the islands. Tourism supports around 30 percent of the Maldivian economy. But the islands’ popular white, sandy beaches and serene ocean views are already being affected by climate change. Climate change creates unstable weather patterns that make storms more volatile. These storms cause increased flooding and more damage to the Maldives. For example, unique and critical habitats like mangrove forests and wetlands are being lost due to erosion caused in part by storms. These areas, which support locals and draw tourists to the islands, are under extreme threat.

Finally, sea-level rise may sink all 1,200 islands of Maldives. This would force all Maldivians to find new places to live. Though the Maldivian government has considered buying land in neighboring countries, like Sri Lanka, India, and Australia, so that Maldivians can move there, as of 2023, the government is committed to keeping the islands habitable by reclaiming land. Though it does help the island stay above water, land reclamation projects can damage the environment. These projects have damaged coral reefs, destroyed mangrove forests, and harmed island communities’ way of life and culture. For example, traditional dishes in the Maldives are based on locally produced crops, like coconut and breadfruit. This part of their cultural heritage could be lost without the islands. Another issue is financing these projects. The Maldivian government has asked countries with high emissions that are the biggest contributors to climate change, like China, India, and the United States, for funds. Maldives only contributes 0.003 percent of the world’s emissions but faces complete destruction due to the emissions of other countries.

Cities at Risk

Urban communities built along the coast or inland waterways are also at particular risk of rising sea levels. Venice, Italy, for example, is already sinking into the sea. This ancient city is built on a series of islands in a lagoon on the coast of the Adriatic Sea. Because it lies at sea level, it is prone to flooding. Earlier builders and residents planned for small, manageable floods a few times a year, but floods are becoming larger and more frequent. It is possible that the city could be almost completely underwater by 2100. Many local residents have already become environmental migrants; the city’s population has dropped by more than half since the 1950s. There are fewer permanent residents in Venice than tourist’s beds, and many Venetians are concerned that their culture is already disappearing.

The Indonesian capital of Jakarta is similarly threatened by climate change and other environmental issues—so much so that Indonesia’s government is relocating. Jakarta is located along the Java Sea. Almost half of the city’s land is below sea level, and it is sinking even more because of ground-water extraction. The government is moving the capital to a more remote island, but the indigenous people living there are concerned that their culture and the natural resources in the rainforests will be destroyed by building a new city.

Drought and Desertification

While rising seas threaten coastal regions, drought and desertification can create climate refugees inland. When people cannot grow crops on the land where they live, they have to move somewhere else in order to survive. For example, the Gobi Desert in China is expanding every year, forcing farmers and merchants in the surrounding area to migrate to China’s crowded urban areas.

Residents near the Horn of Africa are especially vulnerable to drought and desertification, especially in the 2020s as it experienced the most severe and most lengthy drought in decades. Most rural residents in the area engage in subsistence agriculture. Subsistence agriculture means the farmers produce enough crops for themselves, their families, and communities rather than for sale on the national or international market. Many subsistence farmers depend on their crops to feed their livestock. Years of severe drought prevent crops from growing, which also prevents livestock from being raised. As the drought has worsened, people in the region have left their homes to find food and water. In Somalia alone, 1.3 million people moved to displacement sites because of famine. The entire continent of Africa contributes less than 4 percent of global greenhouse emissions but has already experienced extreme consequences of climate change. Despite this, countries in the Horn of Africa get less funding from major climate change contributors to combat climate change than the average for less-developed countries.

Refugee Status

Environmental refugees are not protected by international laws and cannot apply for refugee status in a neighboring country based on a sudden or ongoing climate disaster alone. The term “environmental refugee” is debated among experts, with some advocating its use to help environmental migrants become protected by law, and others saying it is inaccurate and discounts those who are forced to migrate within their own country. Therefore, most climate refugees are internal migrants, who move to another location within their home country.

Environmental and climate refugees may be forced off land they have been living on for generations. They include farmers, herders, fishermen, and other people for whom the land is essential to livelihood. These refugees move to cities, where they often settle in crowded camps, informal settlements, and other places that have insufficient infrastructure to meet the needs of the people living there. A sudden influx of newcomers can create or exacerbate tension between the host communities and displaced persons. This is why climate change is considered a “threat multiplier.” The problems that result often worsen existing problems, such as war, resource scarcity, and political strife. For example, the drought in Burkina Faso in 2022 and 2023 made the armed conflict there worse; the violence has been greatest in areas facing the driest and most dire climate conditions.

Like other migrants, climate and environmental refugees often have unrecognized benefits and untapped potential. Some countries have resettled migrants in areas where they can plant trees and reclaim lands that recently went from arable to desert in hopes that the land will become fertile again. Refugees with firsthand knowledge of the problems related to climate change may be the best advocates for solutions.