By the end of this , the Chesapeake could rise an additional 1.8 to 2.4 meters (two to four feet), according to moderate reported by an organization called (pronounced "see-spar"), which stands for Chesapeake and Storm : Public Awareness and Response. In partnership with organizations like the , CSSPAR works to gather and distribute information about sea-level rise and intensified on the Chesapeake .
ice from both Greenland and Antarctica is melting into the world's oceans. Historically, oceans rise at an average rate of 12.7 to 20.3 centimeters (five to eight inches) every 100 years.
in the Chesapeake Bay rises at a faster rate than average because the land underneath the bay is sinking. During the last , pushed the land surrounding the Chesapeake Bay upward. After the glaciers melted, the land slowly to its original position through a process called land . As the land sinks, the water in the Chesapeake Bay rises. Land subsidence contributes to about half of the Chesapeake region's observed sea-level rise.
The Nation's
Since so much of the land in the Chesapeake region already lies very near sea level, even a small rise would have a huge impact.
"If an area of land is less than 0.6 meters (two feet) above sea level, and connected to a or that is part of the bay, then that area is at risk for what we call '' by rising sea," explained Sean O'Connor, a National Geographic Society researcher.
O'Connor created maps for CSSPAR that illustrate the predicted effects of sea-level rise on the Chesapeake Bay. If sea-level rise continues on its current path, the bay would invade the land for miles in some places, destroying 167,000 acres of and 1.9 million homes in the United States by the year 2100.
The Chesapeake Bay is a American resource, "the nation's estuary," as O'Connor describes it.
The U.S. capital, Washington, D.C., sits upon the Chesapeake . An estuary is an where fresh river water pours into the salty ocean, creating a , marshy . Hundreds of rivers empty into the Chesapeake estuary along the shorelines of six states. Around 18 million people live in the Chesapeake region.
"The shorelines of the Chesapeake are with important human , like the facilities at Norfolk, Virginia, or the , and districts of Baltimore, Maryland. And much more area is with low-lying , forests and that are home to countless species of , mammals, birds and more. But yet, the estuary finds itself under constant threat of dying out from too much , from of species and now from ," O'Connor said.
Sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay will destroy the wetland habitats of many birds, fish, and plants. Human populations and structures are also at risk. In many low-lying areas, farms and homes will have to be as the bay floods the land. Roads, bridges and buildings will need to be removed and restructured, as will , draining and other systems. As the sea creeps , rebuilding the infrastructure of major such as Baltimore will be an extremely costly .
Storms are Brewing
The more devastation of sea-level rise will threaten the area when storms hit. The region's cities will be flooded as the ocean surges inland.
A higher water level in the bay means stronger storm surges and higher floodwaters. The warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean can thrust powerful and into the U.S. East Coast, and the low-lying Chesapeake region is when one of these storms hits. As global warming intensifies, these storms will become more powerful and more .
More intense storm surges are already hitting the Chesapeake. Scientists from CSSPAR compared from a 1933 storm (the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane) to data from a 2003 storm, Hurricane Isabel. The storms hit the same coastal area with approximately equal force. However, the storm surge from Isabel was higher than the one in 1933.
Hurricane Isabel's surge was measured at 1.8 to 2.4 meters (six to eight feet) above the normal water levels of the Chesapeake Bay. The same was seen in the Maryland cities of Baltimore and Annapolis.
The deadly storm ripped apart buildings and wetlands, caused millions of dollars in damage, thousands of trees and cut off electricity to 2 million people; some did not regain power for a week.
The CSSPAR scientists modeled the impact of a storm like Hurricane Isabel hitting the Chesapeake 70 years in the future, when the sea will be about 0.6 meters (two feet) higher than it is now. The Chesapeake Bay Observing System collected data from shore and -based , and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science used this data to and predict future storm surges in the Chesapeake region.
The results of their modeling showed that flooding would be . For instance, Isabel caused an approximately 8-foot-high flood in Old Town Alexandria, Virginia. Add another 0.6 meters (two feet) to the bay, and the flood would be three meters (10 feet) high. In the nation's capital, several , and highways would be covered in deep, muddy water. The area of Virginia Beach, Virginia, would be damaged. Homes, hotels, roads and would be flooded and muddy.
Though storms will become more powerful and violent, O'Connor hopes improved will reduce human deaths when future storms hit. Such technology can make real-time predictions about the impact of storm surges.
and use of coordinates can help people understand the nature of a storm surge, how strong the surge will be, and how long it will last. Damage to homes, businesses or systems could be reduced.
"If we continue to improve these models, we won't necessarily see the same impact on humans (as in past storms) because we would have a better system for educating people," O'Connor said. In other words, this storm prediction technology could save lives.
Fast Fact
The Chesapeake's Living Shorelines To help protect the Chesapeake region (in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States), average citizens should first educate themselves about the ecology of the Chesapeake Bay as a system, said Sean O'Connor, a National Geographic Society cartographer who has mapped sea-level rise on the Chesapeake.
O'Connor advocates cultivating natural environments along the coast called living shorelines. Erosion is controlled by placing rows of stone just off the shoreline, along which aquatic grasses are planted. Sand and mud are trapped naturally behind these "walls" of stone and grass. Shoreline is actually gained. Living shorelines have emerged as the preferred alternative to "hard" techniques such as retaining walls.
The audio, illustrations, photos, and videos are credited beneath the media asset, except for promotional images, which generally link to another page that contains the media credit. The Rights Holder for media is the person or group credited.
Writers
Jeff Hunt
Kara West
Editors
Jeannie Evers, Emdash Editing, Emdash Editing
Kim Rutledge
Source
Chesapeake Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge: Public Awareness and Response (CSSPAR)
Producer
National Geographic Society
other
Last Updated
October 19, 2023
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